The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 8:00 AM EST.
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One thing that I'm seeing in a variety of markets (Stocks, metals, currencies, bonds) is higher volatility but little headway being made in either direction. The recent ranges have widened but the markets themselves are really just treading water. I'd feel a lot better if things were quiet for a period because that's usually a great indication that a breakout is ready to occur. But as it stands now, we could be going nowhere fast for the forseeable future and the metals complex could see the frustration level of the long-term players rise dramatically over the weeks to come. Gold's $40 range between $540 and $580 may be tough to break anytime soon. The range is just wide enough to put the market in oversold territory at the bottom and overbought at the top. So, I believe it's going to take some kind of extraordinary event to move this market out of it's "comfort zone". What could cause such a reaction? That's the $64,000 question. There are so many potential catalysts out there. That's why I keep recommending that any significant dip be bought in any of the metals because the potential for a move through resistance is so high considering the global tension that currently exists.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Thursday, February 23, 2006
02/23/06 Precious metals comments
The following was sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial writer at Marketwatch.com, at 7:18 AM EST.
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Not a whole lot going on in the metals complex this morning. The rally that we've seen in the Gold market over the last few sessions seems to be fizzling out. With the near-term outlook turning ominous I won't be surprised to see us work back below the 2/14 low with $525 looking like a logical downside objective basis the April contract. This would, from a technical perspective, put the market in a position that it hasn't seen since early November/05, meaning the market would have to experience multiple closes below the 50-day MA which now stands at 545.50. If the market should break to that level I believe it will just be another attempt to drive the weaker longs from the market and, in turn, put the market back into an extreme oversold condition which would act as a springboard for the next leg up. I don't usually make wild predictions but I believe that Gold will break $600 by June 15th, which happens to be my 50th birthday. That would be a very nice present indeed.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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Not a whole lot going on in the metals complex this morning. The rally that we've seen in the Gold market over the last few sessions seems to be fizzling out. With the near-term outlook turning ominous I won't be surprised to see us work back below the 2/14 low with $525 looking like a logical downside objective basis the April contract. This would, from a technical perspective, put the market in a position that it hasn't seen since early November/05, meaning the market would have to experience multiple closes below the 50-day MA which now stands at 545.50. If the market should break to that level I believe it will just be another attempt to drive the weaker longs from the market and, in turn, put the market back into an extreme oversold condition which would act as a springboard for the next leg up. I don't usually make wild predictions but I believe that Gold will break $600 by June 15th, which happens to be my 50th birthday. That would be a very nice present indeed.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
02/14/2006 Precious Metals comments
The following comments were transmitted to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 8:03 AM EST.
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The overnight action in the Gold market has brought the April contract to the 50-day MA which now stands at 541.70. Back on 2/7, I wrote that I expected to see a test of the 50-day MA and we have now seen that test with April Gold touching 537.80. This very strong support area is holding for now and, with my proprietary oscillators now back in extreme oversold territory this may be an opportune time for those who have been waiting for this retracement to finally end. Only consecutive closes below the 50-day MA would compel me to rethink my position. The market also has successfully tested trendline support drawn from the Nov/Dec lows which is further evidence that this pullback may have finally run its course and the market could be poised to make a run at $600.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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The overnight action in the Gold market has brought the April contract to the 50-day MA which now stands at 541.70. Back on 2/7, I wrote that I expected to see a test of the 50-day MA and we have now seen that test with April Gold touching 537.80. This very strong support area is holding for now and, with my proprietary oscillators now back in extreme oversold territory this may be an opportune time for those who have been waiting for this retracement to finally end. Only consecutive closes below the 50-day MA would compel me to rethink my position. The market also has successfully tested trendline support drawn from the Nov/Dec lows which is further evidence that this pullback may have finally run its course and the market could be poised to make a run at $600.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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Friday, February 10, 2006
02/10/2006 - Precious Metals Comments
The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 7:38 AM EST.
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There is a very ominous scenario developing on the daily chart for the April Gold contract. The formation of a potential Head-and-Shoulders top is becoming more and more likely and this could mean trouble for the entire Precious metals complex. With the markets all currently in the loss column after being higher overnight, traders will be watching Gold very closely to see if this chart pattern develops further. Consecutive closes below 545.20, the low set on 1/19, would set the stage for a move all the way back down to the $500 level. Only a close above the contract high of 579.50 will break this pattern and turn the short-term trend back up.
The chart pattern in Silver isn't as well defined as the Gold chart but it too shows the beginnings of a potential top. The next few trading sessions should provide enough evidence for a potential trend reversal. Should Gold begin to see a major shift in sentiment then Silver will most likely follow suit. Support in March Silver lies at 8.75 and 8.25.
Copper's trend should remain positive for the near-term but consecutive closes below 2.24 would send up the caution flag in this market. This will be a good opportunity for Copper to break away from Gold and Silver and to follow its own path to new highs.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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There is a very ominous scenario developing on the daily chart for the April Gold contract. The formation of a potential Head-and-Shoulders top is becoming more and more likely and this could mean trouble for the entire Precious metals complex. With the markets all currently in the loss column after being higher overnight, traders will be watching Gold very closely to see if this chart pattern develops further. Consecutive closes below 545.20, the low set on 1/19, would set the stage for a move all the way back down to the $500 level. Only a close above the contract high of 579.50 will break this pattern and turn the short-term trend back up.
The chart pattern in Silver isn't as well defined as the Gold chart but it too shows the beginnings of a potential top. The next few trading sessions should provide enough evidence for a potential trend reversal. Should Gold begin to see a major shift in sentiment then Silver will most likely follow suit. Support in March Silver lies at 8.75 and 8.25.
Copper's trend should remain positive for the near-term but consecutive closes below 2.24 would send up the caution flag in this market. This will be a good opportunity for Copper to break away from Gold and Silver and to follow its own path to new highs.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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Tuesday, February 07, 2006
02/07/06 - Precious Metals Comments
The following comments were sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer for Marketwatch.com, at 8:02 AM EST.
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The Precious metals complex has been on a tear right from the New year's opening day but it finally looks like we're in for a little bit of profit taking and a necessary retracement. It's always hard to guage exactly when a particular market will begin a normal retracement and, with the recent strength in the metals, making that call can be dangerous. The overall market trends remain intact but I won't be surprised to see a move in APR GOLD down to the 50-day MA (537.40) which is very strong chart support. This would put the market back in oversold territory while forcing the majority of small specs out of the market in the interim. This would probably set up the next leg that would finally see Gold testing that $600 resistance level.
MAR Silver has strong support at its 50-day MA which lies just above the $9.00 level and Copper, well, Copper is another story altogether. I've said many times that I believe Copper will continue to lead all of the metals, precious or base, and it continues to prove me right. Copper will most likely eclipse $3.00 before the market experiences any significant pullback. The fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment are all aligned for Copper and this market should continue to make new contract highs.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
___________________________________________________________________
The Precious metals complex has been on a tear right from the New year's opening day but it finally looks like we're in for a little bit of profit taking and a necessary retracement. It's always hard to guage exactly when a particular market will begin a normal retracement and, with the recent strength in the metals, making that call can be dangerous. The overall market trends remain intact but I won't be surprised to see a move in APR GOLD down to the 50-day MA (537.40) which is very strong chart support. This would put the market back in oversold territory while forcing the majority of small specs out of the market in the interim. This would probably set up the next leg that would finally see Gold testing that $600 resistance level.
MAR Silver has strong support at its 50-day MA which lies just above the $9.00 level and Copper, well, Copper is another story altogether. I've said many times that I believe Copper will continue to lead all of the metals, precious or base, and it continues to prove me right. Copper will most likely eclipse $3.00 before the market experiences any significant pullback. The fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment are all aligned for Copper and this market should continue to make new contract highs.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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