Thursday's Metals comments - 03/30/2006

The following comments were emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 9:34 A.M.

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If there was any doubt about the health of the Precious metals complex today should certainly erase that doubt. APR Gold is looking to post a new closing high for the contract, the previous high being 576.80. If this should occur, then a swift rally to the $600 area would most likely follow. MAY Silver continues to rally in anticipation of the launch of the Silver-based ETF. It will be very interesting to see whether Silver be be able to maintain these lofty levels once the IPO comes to market. I'm skeptical and I expect a setback in Silver after the ETF is launched. I also expect to see the volatility in Silver rise in the interim. Copper, which I like to call the "ol' man river" market because it "just keeps rolling along" - HIGHER!!! What a magnificent market to trade. Not many surprises here as the market now seems to be targeting the $3.00 level. Only time will tell whether the market has what it will take to reach that lofty level.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Back to the (DOW) Futures!

I haven't posted any comments on the DOW futures since January 9th but I have been watching (and trading) when the opportunity arises. As I'm sure you are aware, I am a long-term BEAR on the Stock Index futures and I recently began SHORTING the JUN $5 DOW futures contract, first at 11100 and then at 11200. Here's my strategy and it's certainly not too late to get on board. I'm risking $7500 on this strategy and I'll be the first to admit that most professional traders would think I've taken leave of my senses regarding my approach to this particular market. But, as I like to point out, it's MY MONEY!! I'm using a 150 point stop loss or $750 per trade. I'm trading one lots and I'm selling all the way up to 12000. As it stands right now, with the market closing at 11118 (down 11 on the day), I'm up 64 points on my 2 positions. I will SELL another Jun DOW contract at 11000 STOP and continue to do so until further notice. If you have any questions or comments you can post them here on the Weblog.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

03/02/2006 Precious Metals comments

The following was emailed to Myra P. Saefong, Financial Writer at Marketwatch.com, at 8:50 AM EST.
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The new month finds the metals complex starting off rather quietly as the "tug-o-war" continues between support and resistance and neither side able to gain the upper hand. There's little reason to be overly concerned about any major retracement but there's also little evidence that the market will break out to new highs anytime soon either. Traders' patience will likely be tested over the next several weeks and one side will finally cry "uncle". I believe that the long-term trend remains intact in all of the metals markets but we may have to experience a longer than normal consolidation period before the markets are finally able to see some fresh buying which would put the markets back on track for new contract highs. In the meantime, we'll probably see volatility rise with lots of stops being hit in the near term. Nothing aggravates long-term traders more than churning markets but, for the scalpers, it's like taking candy from a baby.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities