Good morning all,
So, here we are. The DOW futures are trading just below the 14,000 mark after an intrady high of 14,036. My order to SELL the DOW lies at 14,050. There's an old saying that if the market allows your limit order to be elected the trade is probably a bad one. That's a little early morning trading humor for you. It's always a little frustrating when your order is left in the dust by the market but it happens. We're at extremely lofty levels here so you may not want to wait to get SHORT. I may have to take that advice myself if the market doesn't show some sign of a rally to a new intraday high. I'll be patient for now but I may be forced to reevaluate my position. Stay tuned!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Mid-week update
Good morning all,
It's Wednesday and the DOW is currently trading above the 13900 level which means I made the right choice in exiting my SHORT position yesterday. This market is puzzling to say the least. I don't like to bring up fundamentals but the news just keeps getting worse yet the stock index futures find some way to move higher. From a technical perspective this is actually quite positive. So the only question left is why am I not bullish on stocks? The answer to that isn't as simple as you might think. I'm not normally a pessimistic person but I get uncomfortable when I see situations that occur, especially in the financial markets, that are swept aside as if they are of little consequence. The current debacle in housing and the commercial paper markets is just the tip of the iceberg and is anything but inconsequential. It's going to take time to realize the full nature of these events and I can't see how the markets can continue to ignore the potential fallout that I still believe is going to occur. Just look at Gold and then ask yourself why it's continuing to rally if all is right with the world. As I'm fond of saying, we'll just have to wait and see how this whole thing plays out.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
It's Wednesday and the DOW is currently trading above the 13900 level which means I made the right choice in exiting my SHORT position yesterday. This market is puzzling to say the least. I don't like to bring up fundamentals but the news just keeps getting worse yet the stock index futures find some way to move higher. From a technical perspective this is actually quite positive. So the only question left is why am I not bullish on stocks? The answer to that isn't as simple as you might think. I'm not normally a pessimistic person but I get uncomfortable when I see situations that occur, especially in the financial markets, that are swept aside as if they are of little consequence. The current debacle in housing and the commercial paper markets is just the tip of the iceberg and is anything but inconsequential. It's going to take time to realize the full nature of these events and I can't see how the markets can continue to ignore the potential fallout that I still believe is going to occur. Just look at Gold and then ask yourself why it's continuing to rally if all is right with the world. As I'm fond of saying, we'll just have to wait and see how this whole thing plays out.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
We'll sit and watch, for now
Hello all,
While I was writing my last post the market moved through the previous high at 13848 and is now just 6 lower on the day at 13856. I'll just monitor the market for now to see if the momentum traders use this as an excuse to BUY the market. If there's no follow through, I'll be looking to get SHORT once again.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
While I was writing my last post the market moved through the previous high at 13848 and is now just 6 lower on the day at 13856. I'll just monitor the market for now to see if the momentum traders use this as an excuse to BUY the market. If there's no follow through, I'll be looking to get SHORT once again.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
DOW Update
Hello all,
Since the volatility is likely to pick up this week, I'm not going to let my profits on this DOW trade evaporate before my eyes. So, in order to protect myself and my profit, I'm placing a protective stop at 13851 which is 3 tics above today's intraday high. The way I see it, if the market does make a new intraday high, the odds of the market continuing higher increase significantly on the breakout. I refuse to fight the market at this point because the trend is still very questionable and the volatility, as I mentioned earlier, is likely to increase over time. Also, there are still a lot of traders holding on to their "wishing and hoping" that all is right with the world and they'll be waiting to jump all over a breakout to the upside.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Since the volatility is likely to pick up this week, I'm not going to let my profits on this DOW trade evaporate before my eyes. So, in order to protect myself and my profit, I'm placing a protective stop at 13851 which is 3 tics above today's intraday high. The way I see it, if the market does make a new intraday high, the odds of the market continuing higher increase significantly on the breakout. I refuse to fight the market at this point because the trend is still very questionable and the volatility, as I mentioned earlier, is likely to increase over time. Also, there are still a lot of traders holding on to their "wishing and hoping" that all is right with the world and they'll be waiting to jump all over a breakout to the upside.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
A standing ovation for standing orders
Good morning all,
I decided to place a limit order in the DEC DOW futures yesterday in spite of the fact that I was not going to be monitoring the markets very closely while I was trying to take some cash from my son on the golf course. But I still had this hunch that my timing was right regarding the failure in the DOW futures that I wrote about yesterday morning so I placed a limit order to SELL the DEC DOW at 13951 with a 50 point STOP. My SELL order was elected shortly after the cash markets opened and the high was made during that 30-minute bar on the chart. The DOW retested the day's high of 13963 about an hour later but was unable to move through that level. The market has been working lower ever since that double top on the 30-minute chart. We are now trading down 50 points 9:45 AM (13,812) and I won't be surprised to see the market significantly lower by the close.
The Gold market, currently at 736.00 basis DEC, is seeing some selling pressure in spite of a lower dollar. This just gives those who have been wringing their hands hoping for a retracement a chance to buy at a slightly better price. Don't let this opportunity pass you by! More later.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
I decided to place a limit order in the DEC DOW futures yesterday in spite of the fact that I was not going to be monitoring the markets very closely while I was trying to take some cash from my son on the golf course. But I still had this hunch that my timing was right regarding the failure in the DOW futures that I wrote about yesterday morning so I placed a limit order to SELL the DEC DOW at 13951 with a 50 point STOP. My SELL order was elected shortly after the cash markets opened and the high was made during that 30-minute bar on the chart. The DOW retested the day's high of 13963 about an hour later but was unable to move through that level. The market has been working lower ever since that double top on the 30-minute chart. We are now trading down 50 points 9:45 AM (13,812) and I won't be surprised to see the market significantly lower by the close.
The Gold market, currently at 736.00 basis DEC, is seeing some selling pressure in spite of a lower dollar. This just gives those who have been wringing their hands hoping for a retracement a chance to buy at a slightly better price. Don't let this opportunity pass you by! More later.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Monday, September 24, 2007
DOW at a crossroads!
Good morning all,
Well this is where things should get interesting regarding the DOW futures. The DEC contract hit its contract high back on July 19th at 14190. The DOW then fell 1,500 points to an intraday low of 12,680 on August 16th. We now find the DOW trading just above the June 1st high of 13,917 and in significantly overbought territory. In spite of the fact that all of the talking heads on CNBC believe that the economy is out of the woods and life is beautiful once again, I can't help to think that this A-B-C retracement rally, powered by a .50% rate cut by the FED, is going to fail miserably. I guess we'll just have to wait and see but I won't start selling the DOW futures just yet. Why? Because I'm going to play golf with my son, Brian, today. I love to trade and fatten my account equity but I love spending time with my kids even more! You only live once!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Well this is where things should get interesting regarding the DOW futures. The DEC contract hit its contract high back on July 19th at 14190. The DOW then fell 1,500 points to an intraday low of 12,680 on August 16th. We now find the DOW trading just above the June 1st high of 13,917 and in significantly overbought territory. In spite of the fact that all of the talking heads on CNBC believe that the economy is out of the woods and life is beautiful once again, I can't help to think that this A-B-C retracement rally, powered by a .50% rate cut by the FED, is going to fail miserably. I guess we'll just have to wait and see but I won't start selling the DOW futures just yet. Why? Because I'm going to play golf with my son, Brian, today. I love to trade and fatten my account equity but I love spending time with my kids even more! You only live once!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Gold - Looking Good!
Good morning all,
DEC GOLD is trading slightly below Tuesday's high of 735.50 but the uptrend is healthy and I believe this market is ready to kick it into high gear. Keep your eye on the DOW futures today. I won't be surprised to see a positive day in the Stock index futures but there will be a hangover from yesterday's rally so look for the markets to stumble as the euphoria from the interest rate cut starts to wear off.
A logical scenario would be to see a rally up to but just shy of the all-time highs then a major drop in stocks across the board. The only question is how close will they actually get to the previous highs. My guess is that the indexes are only a day or two away from failure.
A fairly safe play, in my opinion, is in the treasury markets. We could see the 5-yr. notes yielding 2-2.5% by the first quarter of 2008 and that means big profits for those of you long Treasury futures. Stay tuned.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
DEC GOLD is trading slightly below Tuesday's high of 735.50 but the uptrend is healthy and I believe this market is ready to kick it into high gear. Keep your eye on the DOW futures today. I won't be surprised to see a positive day in the Stock index futures but there will be a hangover from yesterday's rally so look for the markets to stumble as the euphoria from the interest rate cut starts to wear off.
A logical scenario would be to see a rally up to but just shy of the all-time highs then a major drop in stocks across the board. The only question is how close will they actually get to the previous highs. My guess is that the indexes are only a day or two away from failure.
A fairly safe play, in my opinion, is in the treasury markets. We could see the 5-yr. notes yielding 2-2.5% by the first quarter of 2008 and that means big profits for those of you long Treasury futures. Stay tuned.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Don't be fooled by the stock market rally!
Good afternoon all,
I apologize for the delay in putting this on the blog but it's been a very hectic week. So, I know you're all wanting to know about the Stock index futures and the big rally today. Well, all I can say is that it's hardly surprising that the equities markets would rally after the FED cuts both the DISCOUNT rate AND the FED FUNDS rate by 50 basis points. Is anyone listening to what the FED is saying? Did anyone see the early morning headlines regarding foreclosures or the builder sentiment numbers being the worst on record? Then get the FUCKING WAX out of your ears and OPEN YOUR EYES! If all is well with the world then why is GOLD rallying sharply on the news of the FED rate cut? Because all IS NOT well with the world!! Gold is probably headed for the all-time highs above $800. I just hope that it's done in an orderly fashion so the trend can be sustained until we reach the $1,000/oz. mark. More later.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
I apologize for the delay in putting this on the blog but it's been a very hectic week. So, I know you're all wanting to know about the Stock index futures and the big rally today. Well, all I can say is that it's hardly surprising that the equities markets would rally after the FED cuts both the DISCOUNT rate AND the FED FUNDS rate by 50 basis points. Is anyone listening to what the FED is saying? Did anyone see the early morning headlines regarding foreclosures or the builder sentiment numbers being the worst on record? Then get the FUCKING WAX out of your ears and OPEN YOUR EYES! If all is well with the world then why is GOLD rallying sharply on the news of the FED rate cut? Because all IS NOT well with the world!! Gold is probably headed for the all-time highs above $800. I just hope that it's done in an orderly fashion so the trend can be sustained until we reach the $1,000/oz. mark. More later.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
How high will Gold go?
Good afternoon all,
First, I'd like to mention that my recent study of Gold is complete and the first 50 people who send a blank email to dale@daledoelling.com will receive a free copy.
Second, DEC GOLD made a new contract high today and that is very significant for the market. Now, if you're just now starting to look at Gold as a momentum play you're probably wondering if the train has left the station. In my humble opinion, we're only in the 5th inning of this game. Where will Gold eventually top out? That's anyone's guess. But as long as we're guessing I believe that Gold will eventually top $1,000 and may hit $3,000 before it's all said and done.
Just remember to use common sense when trading the Precious metals markets and only use an amount of leverage that you are absolutely comfortable with. From ETF's to the futures and options markets, there's a level of risk and leverage available for everyone. Just take a position in something NOW!! Stay tuned!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
First, I'd like to mention that my recent study of Gold is complete and the first 50 people who send a blank email to dale@daledoelling.com will receive a free copy.
Second, DEC GOLD made a new contract high today and that is very significant for the market. Now, if you're just now starting to look at Gold as a momentum play you're probably wondering if the train has left the station. In my humble opinion, we're only in the 5th inning of this game. Where will Gold eventually top out? That's anyone's guess. But as long as we're guessing I believe that Gold will eventually top $1,000 and may hit $3,000 before it's all said and done.
Just remember to use common sense when trading the Precious metals markets and only use an amount of leverage that you are absolutely comfortable with. From ETF's to the futures and options markets, there's a level of risk and leverage available for everyone. Just take a position in something NOW!! Stay tuned!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Friday, September 07, 2007
Did you take my advice?
Good morning all,
Well, I handed you this whole scenario on a silver platter! Did you take my lead and BUY GOLD and SELL the DOW? I certainly hope so because on August 14th I said BUY GOLD and we've been buying since that time including the temporary dips that ensued. Now, DEC GOLD is testing the contract highs at $718. That's a huge move but I believe it's just the beginning. Gold's allure will increase as the financial markets continue to come unraveled. Then the panic will push Gold to all-time highs in quick fashion.
We've been very bearish on the DOW and today's action, down 215 right now, should pave the way for a break of the previous lows which will set off a chain reaction of monumental proportions. There's all kinds of ways to make money in the markets but, unfortunately, a lot of people simply can't understand the Futures markets, believing them to be too esoteric for them. Some just can't make the choice to participate when their inner voice is telling them to jump in. That's unfortunate but true.
We'll be here if you need us. In the meantime, enjoy the action because you ain't seem nothing yet!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Well, I handed you this whole scenario on a silver platter! Did you take my lead and BUY GOLD and SELL the DOW? I certainly hope so because on August 14th I said BUY GOLD and we've been buying since that time including the temporary dips that ensued. Now, DEC GOLD is testing the contract highs at $718. That's a huge move but I believe it's just the beginning. Gold's allure will increase as the financial markets continue to come unraveled. Then the panic will push Gold to all-time highs in quick fashion.
We've been very bearish on the DOW and today's action, down 215 right now, should pave the way for a break of the previous lows which will set off a chain reaction of monumental proportions. There's all kinds of ways to make money in the markets but, unfortunately, a lot of people simply can't understand the Futures markets, believing them to be too esoteric for them. Some just can't make the choice to participate when their inner voice is telling them to jump in. That's unfortunate but true.
We'll be here if you need us. In the meantime, enjoy the action because you ain't seem nothing yet!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Patience can be a virtue!
Good afternoon,
For those of you who subscribe to our real-time service, you saw a good example yesterday of why you don't SHORT a market when it's in full-blown rally mode. Yesterday I wrote here that 13450 seemed to be the place where we'd look to SHORT the SEP DOW futures contract but, when the market hit that level yesterday, it was clear that the market had built some momentum and looked like it wanted to press higher. And it did. We SOLD 13500 instead and that trade turned out to be a thing of beauty. We covered at 13300 today for 200 points of pure profit. This may have been a mistake as we move closer to the jobs report on Friday. The market looked like it was going to stage a brief intraday rally but nothing much became of it. So, with the DOW having just made a new low for the day, this could turn out to be a good example of a terrific entry on a trade followed by a premature exit. All we can do now is sit here and see if the market shows any sign of a rally. If that doesnt' occur, we'll have to just get SHORT again. Stay tuned.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
For those of you who subscribe to our real-time service, you saw a good example yesterday of why you don't SHORT a market when it's in full-blown rally mode. Yesterday I wrote here that 13450 seemed to be the place where we'd look to SHORT the SEP DOW futures contract but, when the market hit that level yesterday, it was clear that the market had built some momentum and looked like it wanted to press higher. And it did. We SOLD 13500 instead and that trade turned out to be a thing of beauty. We covered at 13300 today for 200 points of pure profit. This may have been a mistake as we move closer to the jobs report on Friday. The market looked like it was going to stage a brief intraday rally but nothing much became of it. So, with the DOW having just made a new low for the day, this could turn out to be a good example of a terrific entry on a trade followed by a premature exit. All we can do now is sit here and see if the market shows any sign of a rally. If that doesnt' occur, we'll have to just get SHORT again. Stay tuned.
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Gold's rally signals trouble ahead for the markets
Good afternoon all,
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend. The DEC GOLD contract is trading sharply higher again and this signals pending doom for the stock markets as we head into September. I won't be surprised to see Gold breaking through previous resistance levels this week and then surging to new contract highs as the momentum players pile on.
The DOW 13450 level, basis the SEP contract, seems to be a great area to go SHORT as the market simply has been unable to move significantly above this level. If the market can make it to this level again today, as it did on Friday, I'll be selling the market with a goal of at least 100 points on the trade as we made on Friday's trade from this level. But, eventually, the DOW is going to experience the next big wave down and this, of course, will be the time to simply get SHORT and STAY SHORT. Stay tuned!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend. The DEC GOLD contract is trading sharply higher again and this signals pending doom for the stock markets as we head into September. I won't be surprised to see Gold breaking through previous resistance levels this week and then surging to new contract highs as the momentum players pile on.
The DOW 13450 level, basis the SEP contract, seems to be a great area to go SHORT as the market simply has been unable to move significantly above this level. If the market can make it to this level again today, as it did on Friday, I'll be selling the market with a goal of at least 100 points on the trade as we made on Friday's trade from this level. But, eventually, the DOW is going to experience the next big wave down and this, of course, will be the time to simply get SHORT and STAY SHORT. Stay tuned!
Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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