By my analysis, this looks like a short-term top in the Precious metals and the Stock index futures markets. The NQZ9 needs a close below 1791.50 to turn the short-term trend negative. The YMZ9 needs a close below 10329 to turn its short-term trend negative. The high is already in place in the EURO and the DEC GOLD futures contract needs a close below 1043.80 to turn negative. I expect all of these events to occur before the end of the trading week. Stay tuned!
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Almost Golden!
This was posted to the Bullion.com blog on Monday, May 11th.
Last week's market action saw a breakout in the June Gold futures as Gold made a new one-month high at $926.50 on 5/7. I was all ready to put out an alert to BUY but I needed to see confirmation that the new high would hold and, of course, it didn't. Don't get me wrong here. I'm still very bullish on the entire Precious metals complex and here's why. The June contract closed back above the 20-day MA on Tuesday and has remained there. That's a big positive for the longer-term outlook. Looking at the market from a short-term perspective, the hourly chart just shows a market that simply can't gain any traction. With the Dollar having lost 10 cents to the Euro in the last 2 months, it's a bit puzzling that Gold hasn't had a significantly larger move than it's been able to generate. But I've never been sold on the whole Dollar/gold argument and the last 2 months are a perfect example of why I don't buy into the correlation between the Dollar and gold. On March 11th, 2009, the Euro opened at 1.2681 and June Gold opened at $897.80. The Euro has gained just shy of 8% vs. the Dollar while the Gold price has gained slightly more than 2% during the same period. Hardly a rousing example of as the Dollar goes, so goes Gold. Silver, on the other hand, seems to have taken the upper hand as its gain over the same time frame was 11.2%. I've been advocating Silver for quite some time and I still believe that it will continue to outperform Gold on a relative basis as we move into the summer months. A breakout above the February highs would not surprise me in the least.
I would almost go so far as to say that a retest of the February highs is a foregone conclusion. This market has had 7 strong sessions to the upside and, with the only resistance having been overcome, there's only one hurdle left before Silver can set it's sights on $20. So, if you have any questions about my position on Silver let me remove any ambiguity. I'm a "raging bull" on Silver and, should the market take out $14.64 on a closing basis it should launch an all-out assault on the $20 target. Which leads me to my next subject.
So many of you have written to us and asked two very simple questions - "What is the best form in which to buy bullion?" and "How do we go about buying bullion for our investment portfolio?" We now have the answer to both of those questions. It's Bullion.com! The fact of the matter is, the Precious metals business is fraught with landmines of which the vast majority of investors are totally unaware. So we came up with the only logical solution. We sought out a bullion dealer with a reputation that is second-to-none in the industry to handle our visitors' and subscribers' needs. Whether you are looking to purchase a one ounce American Eagle Gold coin or 100 one ounce Canadian Maple Leafs, Bullion.com will now be able to provide you with a direct link to our bullion dealer. We at Bullion.com believe that this is just a natural progression to what was our original mission - to provide a comprehensive resource for Precious metals investors worldwide. We did the due diligence so you won't have to. So, if you subscribe to our newsletter then you will receive a special invitation to try our new service as soon as it is available. If you aren't a subscriber then go to Bullion.com and subscribe to our newsletter or you can check back with us beginning next week. We are very excited about this new service and, once you have tried the service, we will be asking you for an evaluation of the service that was provided so that we can insure that it is the best the industry has to offer.
There you have it. Bullion.com is not only your #1 Precious metals resource for information on the markets but it's now your source for buying bullion through our bullion dealer. Just call the toll-free number, 1-800-605-1792, to speak to a representative for pricing on any type of bullion that you may be interested in. It's just that simple. And don't forget to email me at daledoelling@bullion.com if you have any questions regarding the Precious metals markets. If you would prefer to speak to me personally you can call me at 888-453-4614, ext. 2, during normal business hours. I look forward to hearing from you.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
Last week's market action saw a breakout in the June Gold futures as Gold made a new one-month high at $926.50 on 5/7. I was all ready to put out an alert to BUY but I needed to see confirmation that the new high would hold and, of course, it didn't. Don't get me wrong here. I'm still very bullish on the entire Precious metals complex and here's why. The June contract closed back above the 20-day MA on Tuesday and has remained there. That's a big positive for the longer-term outlook. Looking at the market from a short-term perspective, the hourly chart just shows a market that simply can't gain any traction. With the Dollar having lost 10 cents to the Euro in the last 2 months, it's a bit puzzling that Gold hasn't had a significantly larger move than it's been able to generate. But I've never been sold on the whole Dollar/gold argument and the last 2 months are a perfect example of why I don't buy into the correlation between the Dollar and gold. On March 11th, 2009, the Euro opened at 1.2681 and June Gold opened at $897.80. The Euro has gained just shy of 8% vs. the Dollar while the Gold price has gained slightly more than 2% during the same period. Hardly a rousing example of as the Dollar goes, so goes Gold. Silver, on the other hand, seems to have taken the upper hand as its gain over the same time frame was 11.2%. I've been advocating Silver for quite some time and I still believe that it will continue to outperform Gold on a relative basis as we move into the summer months. A breakout above the February highs would not surprise me in the least.
I would almost go so far as to say that a retest of the February highs is a foregone conclusion. This market has had 7 strong sessions to the upside and, with the only resistance having been overcome, there's only one hurdle left before Silver can set it's sights on $20. So, if you have any questions about my position on Silver let me remove any ambiguity. I'm a "raging bull" on Silver and, should the market take out $14.64 on a closing basis it should launch an all-out assault on the $20 target. Which leads me to my next subject.
So many of you have written to us and asked two very simple questions - "What is the best form in which to buy bullion?" and "How do we go about buying bullion for our investment portfolio?" We now have the answer to both of those questions. It's Bullion.com! The fact of the matter is, the Precious metals business is fraught with landmines of which the vast majority of investors are totally unaware. So we came up with the only logical solution. We sought out a bullion dealer with a reputation that is second-to-none in the industry to handle our visitors' and subscribers' needs. Whether you are looking to purchase a one ounce American Eagle Gold coin or 100 one ounce Canadian Maple Leafs, Bullion.com will now be able to provide you with a direct link to our bullion dealer. We at Bullion.com believe that this is just a natural progression to what was our original mission - to provide a comprehensive resource for Precious metals investors worldwide. We did the due diligence so you won't have to. So, if you subscribe to our newsletter then you will receive a special invitation to try our new service as soon as it is available. If you aren't a subscriber then go to Bullion.com and subscribe to our newsletter or you can check back with us beginning next week. We are very excited about this new service and, once you have tried the service, we will be asking you for an evaluation of the service that was provided so that we can insure that it is the best the industry has to offer.
There you have it. Bullion.com is not only your #1 Precious metals resource for information on the markets but it's now your source for buying bullion through our bullion dealer. Just call the toll-free number, 1-800-605-1792, to speak to a representative for pricing on any type of bullion that you may be interested in. It's just that simple. And don't forget to email me at daledoelling@bullion.com if you have any questions regarding the Precious metals markets. If you would prefer to speak to me personally you can call me at 888-453-4614, ext. 2, during normal business hours. I look forward to hearing from you.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
Monday, April 06, 2009
The NQ's top gets popped! But this train may be headed for trouble.
I talked about the intermarket relationship between stocks and Precious metals last week and pointed out that the NQ (Nasdaq 100) may have been putting in a quadruple top. That top is history, for now. You see, markets have a funny way of hurting as many people as they possibly can. I was focusing on the NQ because it has clearly been the best performer in 2009 of all the major stock indexes. The performance of the S&P and the DOW pales in comparison. Getting back to my analysis, the high in the June NQ had been right around the 1285.00 area in January, February and March. On Thursday the experiment blew up as the NQ broke out of the pattern and made an intraday high of 1310.75 and, more importantly, closed above the 1300 mark. The momentum traders jumped on this breakaway train and that's probably what propelled the NQ to its high of 1327.50 in early trading this morning. But wait just a minute here! The market is trading 20 handles lower as I write this and my expectation for a peak in the first 3 days of this week may just come to fruition. This could be the spark that lifts Gold and Silver off the mat and puts them back in the fight. The following chart on May Silver shows that the low that was made back on 3/18 (11.89 intraday) was most likely a panic selloff that provided strong support for this market over the longer-term. If stocks should begin to tumble, and this morning's action is looking weak, then Silver may be the market to be in. Silver could quite easily rally back to the February highs if investors start to smell a trap in the equities arena.
So, to recap, I remain SHORT the NQ, with the market now down 18.00 handles from Friday's close and, more importantly, below the 1300 level. If this top is for real the NQ will have to break support at 1293.25 on a closing basis. If this should occur, the odds are that the Precious metals will have already begun to show signs that the selloff is finished and that a new leg up is underway. Keep your eye on the MAY SILVER contract as we progress through the week. If the market should break further and begin to approach the $12.00 level I'll simply step in and BUY using the previous low at 11.89 as my stop on a closing basis. This could be the BEST opportunity for being long SILVER since the October lows at 8.65. You need to be ready to act because, as we all know, the best laid plans are worthless without action.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation ("SFF-CORP") and are for general informational purposes only. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP for informational purposes only. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
So, to recap, I remain SHORT the NQ, with the market now down 18.00 handles from Friday's close and, more importantly, below the 1300 level. If this top is for real the NQ will have to break support at 1293.25 on a closing basis. If this should occur, the odds are that the Precious metals will have already begun to show signs that the selloff is finished and that a new leg up is underway. Keep your eye on the MAY SILVER contract as we progress through the week. If the market should break further and begin to approach the $12.00 level I'll simply step in and BUY using the previous low at 11.89 as my stop on a closing basis. This could be the BEST opportunity for being long SILVER since the October lows at 8.65. You need to be ready to act because, as we all know, the best laid plans are worthless without action.
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation ("SFF-CORP") and are for general informational purposes only. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP for informational purposes only. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
Friday, April 03, 2009
Quadruple Top in NQ?
An abridged version of this article was posted on the Bullion.com blog on April 2, 2009.
The NQ futures contract (NASDAQ 100) made a quadruple top overnight when it rallied to just shy of the previous high made on 2/10 of 1285.25. This morning's high was 1284.00 and, assuming the market doesn't break out and close above 1285.25, this is as close to a sure bet as you'll get when it comes to trading the markets. I'm SHORT the NQ and will remain short until the NQ closes above the resistance that I mentioned. How does this affect the Precious metals markets? Let's look at Gold for a moment. We just had a higher initial jobless claims number this morning and the 4-week moving average rose again aslo. Does this sound like an improving economic condition to you? I'm sure you've heard the joke "How do you know when a politician's lying? His lips are moving!" One of the President's biggest campaign promises went up in smoke yesterday when the largest tax increase in tobacco taxes took effect despite Obama's promise not to raise taxes of any kind on families earning under $250,000. This is one tax that disproportionately affects the poor, who are more likely to smoke than any other class of Americans. Nothing has changed!
It's just after 8:30 AM on Thursday and the April Gold contract is trading down $12.00 at 914.10. I continue to like Gold in the low 900's but with the Employment report set to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM I am compelled to wait until that number is released before I commit to the long side once again.
If you look at the daily chart you can see that the %R oscillator is showing that the market is in a bottoming process. This means that tomorrow's number could put Gold on another rocket shot trajectory or it could mean that the market will break down to the previous lows of 3/18 or somewhere south of $900 and then turn and rally. There's really no way of telling unless you happen to be the one that compiles the Employment numbers for the Labor Department. Trading in front of the biggest economic report of the month is gambling, not trading. The facts remain the same on the economic front. We ain't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination. As a matter of fact, we're still trying to figure out which way is North.
Let me leave you with this little snippet from P.J. O'Rourke, my favorite political satirist and Libertarian, when he was asked to evaluate President Obama's performance so far. "A dorm room bull session is in control of our country. Obama wants to change everything at once with no understanding of what those things are, no idea of how change happens in the real world, and no notion of the consequences of his ignorance." I couldn't have said it better myself!
Good trading,
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Technician
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation (”SFF-CORP”). Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
Thursday, January 01, 2009
Looking for excitement? Go to Vegas!
(The following entry was originally submitted to the Bullion.com blog earlier today.)
Happy New Year! This has been one of the most interesting years in my 25 years in the Financial services industry. I delayed publishing this week’s comments because I wanted to crunch the numbers for 2008 before we put forth a strategy for 2009 and beyond. Gold, although higher earlier in the year, still managed to notch a 5.5% return in 2008. We managed to do significantly better because we take both long AND short positions as the trends change. But make no mistake. The long-term bull trend in GOLD is intact! I happen to believe that the next 24 months could bring new all-time highs in Gold as the fragile financial system fails to respond to massive injections of cash via the unprecedented government bailouts that have been proposed. This will lead to new lows in the Dollar, a continued decline in consumer confidence, a deep and prolonged recession (or Depression) and a major rally in Gold as the focus moves swiftly to stores of value that stocks and bonds can not give.
Happy New Year! This has been one of the most interesting years in my 25 years in the Financial services industry. I delayed publishing this week’s comments because I wanted to crunch the numbers for 2008 before we put forth a strategy for 2009 and beyond. Gold, although higher earlier in the year, still managed to notch a 5.5% return in 2008. We managed to do significantly better because we take both long AND short positions as the trends change. But make no mistake. The long-term bull trend in GOLD is intact! I happen to believe that the next 24 months could bring new all-time highs in Gold as the fragile financial system fails to respond to massive injections of cash via the unprecedented government bailouts that have been proposed. This will lead to new lows in the Dollar, a continued decline in consumer confidence, a deep and prolonged recession (or Depression) and a major rally in Gold as the focus moves swiftly to stores of value that stocks and bonds can not give.
I’ve been criticized in the past for my writing style regarding the markets. Some believe that I should try to be more “entertaining” when I try to explain the way markets move from a technical perspective. Let me say this right up front. I’m not interested in entertainment. If I want entertainment I go Vegas. When it comes to the markets I’m only interested in one thing- Making money! Unless you are familiar with my work and my track record you may find it difficult to develop and execute a trading plan based solely on my opinion in this blog. As a matter of fact, the development and implementation of a trading plan is the toughest thing for most investore to do and even more difficult for the novice trader. On November 13th when Gold futures were trading just south of $700, I stated in a story on Marketwatch.com that I expected Gold to rally back to the $900 mark. On Monday, FEB Gold futures hit $892.00. Now, you might be inclined to say that I missed the mark. And, you’d be right. All I know is that I came close enough to my mark to bank some serious profits as Gold rallied to the close of 2008. And that, my friends, is what trend following is all about. The major trend in Gold is UP and this leg of the move may be the most impressive. So, take a portion of your investable dollars and invest it in Precious metals. If I’m right, you’ll be smiling at this time next year.
I will add an additional segment to this blog after the close tomorrow as we look at charts on Platinum and Palladium and explore the profit potential of these markets as well.
I wish you all the best in 2009!
Dale F. Doelling, Chief Market Analyst
The information and comments contained herein are provided by Secure Future Financial Corporation
(”SFF-CORP”) and NOT Castello Cities Internet Network, Incorporated. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Secure Future Financial Corporation is strictly prohibited. Again, the information and comments contained herein is provided by SFF-CORP and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Castello Cities Internet Network, Inc. Copyright © Secure Future Financial Corporation.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)