Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Where are the bears?

It looks like the stock market has no place to go but down now that Richard Russell has finally thrown in the towel and gone "neutral" on the market. There are no more bears left! I began shorting the Russell 2000 futures yesterday and I put all of my retirement funds into bonds. How low do I expect the market to go? Let's just say that the market will get ugly enough to cause some serious handwringing. The poor finish to 2005 will set the market up for a real debacle in 2006. I don't like to make predictions because nobody really knows what the markets are going to do but I will say this. I expect to see the DOW below the levels that it reached in 10/02 or around the 7,150 level. That's my initial target. Can Gold reach $1,000? That idea has some serious merit if the financial markets experience the kind of catastrophic event that I have laid out here. What's the probability that this will happen? I'm not a mathematician but I don't believe it to be that far-fetched. Only time will tell.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

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