The Dollar has rallied, from the low on 9/5 of 108.75, to today's high of 104.75 in a little over a month. That's a gain of 3.7% or exactly 6 yen from the daily low to the daily high. I wrote recently that you shouldn't fight the trend but I also believe that the initial stages of a trend reversal are where you can really make a lot of money. Paul Tudor Jones, one of the greatest traders ever, has made a tremendous amount of money by making large trades at tops and bottoms of various markets. I believe that the Dollar is at a crossroad here and I am building a SHORT position above 114.25 Yen and, although I believe as Mr. Jones does that LOSERS AVERAGE LOSERS, I believe that it is warranted when your analysis aligns with your conviction. So, I'm SHORT the Dollar/Yen at 114.25 and 114.50 and I'll cover and stand aside when and if the market closes above the 115.00 Yen level.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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