Thursday, October 13, 2005

Stagflation is in the air.

Well, the economic data is out (who cares?) and the Dollar found the data supportive, at least temporarily. Certainly, a consensus seems to be building that inflation is going to be a problem somewhere down the road. How bad it will get is anyone’s guess. So, if the markets are concerned about inflation, then why did the Bond market rally on this morning news? I guess the market got stretched too far on the downside and it had to get some relief. This leads us to the Precious metals markets, which are currently seeing some selling pressure in light of the Dollar’s continued move higher. There’s good news here and the Gold chart supports that opinion. The DEC GOLD contract moved lower and traded briefly below the 20-day MA, which now sits at 472.50, and rallied to close above that area of support. I like the action here and I continue to favor the long side of the metals trade. The markets remain well bid and all attempts to move the metals lower are quashed by continued heavy buying as the markets approach these significant support levels. So, for now, it’s steady as she goes as I’m content to hold long for further gains.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

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