I recently wrote that the trend in the Dollar was about to come to a screeching halt. This may have been nothing more than wishful thinking. As I sit here tonight observing the early trading in the currency markets it's becoming quite obvious that the trend that began back on January 17th (vs. the Yen) in continuing unabated. With the previous high on 7/20 of 113.71 now history and the Dollar trading above the 114.00 level, the Dollar's overbought condition simply isn't enough to keep it from continuing on its upward path. With the 50-day MA at 111.56, we'll have to wait to see how the market reacts to that level when it finally begins to back off from the current levels. I'd be less than candid if I didn't say that I'm still skeptical of this most recent move higher. Suffice to say that my opinion and $3 will get you an iced latte at your local gourmet coffee shop so, for the time being, I'll stay on the sidelines in the currencies and look elsewhere for better trading opportunities.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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