The following was sent to Myra P. Saefong, Financial writer at Marketwatch.com, at 7:18 AM EST.
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Not a whole lot going on in the metals complex this morning. The rally that we've seen in the Gold market over the last few sessions seems to be fizzling out. With the near-term outlook turning ominous I won't be surprised to see us work back below the 2/14 low with $525 looking like a logical downside objective basis the April contract. This would, from a technical perspective, put the market in a position that it hasn't seen since early November/05, meaning the market would have to experience multiple closes below the 50-day MA which now stands at 545.50. If the market should break to that level I believe it will just be another attempt to drive the weaker longs from the market and, in turn, put the market back into an extreme oversold condition which would act as a springboard for the next leg up. I don't usually make wild predictions but I believe that Gold will break $600 by June 15th, which happens to be my 50th birthday. That would be a very nice present indeed.
Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities
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