Thursday, July 27, 2006

Picking tops and bottoms

It's always tough to pick retracement tops and bottoms and the DOW futures are proving, once again, just how tough a task it can be. The market is higher this morning as it presses toward resistance at the 11200 level represented by the trendline drawn from the MAY/JULY highs. So, this may be a very good place to lightly SELL the DOW keeping in mind that there's a decent chance that the DOW might just make a run at the 100-day MA at 11254. Shorting the DOW here would give you about a $300-$400 risk per contract and that should be tolerable for most traders. Consecutive closes above the 100-day MA would negate this whole scenario and probably push the DOW sharply higher. I'll be very surprised if that comes to pass.

Dale F. Doelling
Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

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