The Technical picture on the Dow.

Good afternoon all,

With overnight weakness in the global equities markets it sure looked like stocks in the U.S. were going to puke hard today but, so far, the selling has dried up and the DOW is now trading in positive territory. But the fact remains that the cash DOW closed below its 100-day MA on Friday and is trading just below that level (13,557) today. If we get consecutive closes below the 100-day MA then I'll be SHORT the DOW once again because that will be all the technical damage necessary to turn stocks lower at this juncture. If that occurs it will signal that this rally, which began on 8/16/07 when the DOW broke the 200-day MA by a large margin only to rally back and close above the MA, has come to an end. I'll wait for the close and post my trading strategy then.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
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