Another opportunity!

Good morning,

With FED Chairman Bernanke waiting in the wings hoping to make all Americans feel all warm and fuzzy, we have another opportunity to SELL stocks. The DOW futures are up by triple digits at around 13400 and I'm just waiting for the sign that this most recent attempt at a rally has failed.

We've got the long weekend ahead and, should the market indexes close lower today, we may see the markets come completely unraveled next week. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Surviving the markets

Good morning,

If you don't subscribe to or read The Economist then please take a moment and click the link to go to their website. I've been reading this magazine for more years than I can remember. I'd have to say that if you forced me to choose just one magazine that I could read I'd have to choose this one. In the 8/18 issue there was a terrific article titled Surviving the Markets on page 9. One line in the article really stood out. "Because the crisis taps so deeply into the newly devised structures of finance, anyone who say the worst is definitely over is either a fool or someone with a position to protect". Absolute Genius! How long has the National Association of Realtors been telling us that "the worst is over" and NOW is absolutely the best time to buy! Do you think the folks at the NAR have a position to protect? You betcha!

The talking heads on Wall Street keep saying this is "just a correction" in a bull market. If they would only tell us where they buy their crystal balls from! Nobody knows where the markets will be tomorrow, next month or next year. All we can do is follow the major underlying trends. The underlying trend in stocks is now DOWN. Follow the trend and make lots of money. Why make it harder than it has to be?

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

What's that smell?

Good afternoon,

Well, I'd be lying if I said it's not been fun watching the talking heads backpedal and try to explain why the stock markets have continued to retreat in the face of a "fundamentally strong economy" whatever the hell that is. I've heard about all the bullshit that I can take from these idiots.

The consumer is suffering from withdrawal from the credit "orgy" that's been taking place over the last few years and our artificially supported standard of living in this country is about to get "whacked" big time! The pain is going to become unbearable and the FED is finally coming out of the ether but it's just too late. I know I sound like a broken record but it's for your own good. You have to protect yourself, your family and your money. I only hope that you've taken my advice and sold your stocks, bought some gold and paid off your debt. We'll just have to wait and see how bad this economy spirals out of control. I'm betting it will be far worse than anything that we've seen in my lifetime.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N

Good afternoon,

The stock markets were looking soft in the early going but rallied into the early afternoon only to be sucker punched as it headed for the closing bell. The current wave should take us below the March lows, at the very least. With everything that's happening in the financial markets, the most devastating blow will materialize in the form of a confidence crisis. The consumer is experiencing a hangover of monumental proportions due to easy credit and rising real estate values that came to a screeching halt. A lot of people are in a tight spot and there are going to be a lot of cable TV disconnect orders and cell phones turned off due to layoffs in the financial sector. These people have gone to the well once too often only to find that the well has run dry. This is going to go way beyond belt-tightening. This is going to be a tremendous contraction in consumer spending and there's not a damned thing the FED or anyone else can do about it. So, do yourself a big favor if you haven't done so already. Liquidate your stocks and conserve cash and you might just survive the financial tsunami that is about to hit the mainland.

Dale F. Doelling
Preident and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

More on the Precious metals markets

Good morning,

There's been plenty of volatility in the Precious metals markets and that's certainly to be expected. I'm trying to keep this blog up to date but there are only 24 hours in the day and it's been very hard to keep this blog current.

I wrote on August 15th that I was adding to my position in DEC GOLD below $675 and, when the price broke through the 7/5 low of $659 I stepped up to the plate and swung for the fences by taking a sizable position on the break. The market action on 8/16 was a classic selloff taking the market down far enough to hit the stops below the 6/27 low of 653.50 only to finish the session back above that support area which led to the sharp rally the following day. This was, quite simply, a market that had been stretched too far. With my technical indicators all signaling that a sharp rally was near I jumped in with both feet. As I write this the market's trading around $676.50 and I believe that a breakout above $700 will occur in the not-too-distant future. If and when that occurs, DEC GOLD could easily eclipse the April highs at $718 making $800 the likely next step as it continues its climb towards the $1,000 mark. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The FED moves!

Good morning,

Yesterday's market action was, well, volatile. Today's market action will be a carbon copy of yesterday's. Yesterday, FED Governor Poole said there's no need for the FED to act on interest rates. The DOW fell 340 points only to rally back to almost unchanged. The market is down sharply again this morning and then, WHAM, the FED cuts the Discount rate by 50 basis points. Hmmm. No need to lower rates but, what the hell, we'll cut rates anyway. Now, it was the right thing to do as far as I'm concerned but it's too little, too late. Frankly, the FED doesn't have enough ammunition to ward off what's ultimately going to be the end result to the 5 years of abuse in the mortgage and real estate markets.

I've continue to buy Gold on these violent dips and I'll continue to SELL the DOW on these reaction rallies to events such as the one we've had this morning by the FED. I think it's easier to buy Gold on these dips than it is to SELL the DOW because the stock markets have been beaten up pretty good. There could be a very sharp rally off the interest rate cut so be careful. The market will tell us when the rally is done. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The DOW's current technical picture

Good morning,

I mentioned yesterday that I thought the DOW probably would see some kind of relief rally because the market has gotten fairly oversold and it just makes sense to me that the market is not going to just step into the abyss without a fight. So I covered my SHORTS this morning when the cash market was trading below the 13,000 level. It looks like that decision was a good one. But, more importantly, I took my own advice (which I ALWAYS DO!) and was an aggressive BUYER of DEC GOLD futures below 675.00 this morning and the market is now trading at 680.70. So, both strategies have fattened my account equity nicely!

With the DOW cash now trading up about 42 points I'll simply wait for a sign that the buying is done and the market is ready to capitulate once again. That could happen in a few hours or a few days but I have no doubt that it will happen. Stay tuned!

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Start buying the metals NOW!

Good afternoon,

Well, I don't have to tell you what happened in the stock markets today. It was another bloodbath. But I have to ask myself, what's the matter with the Precious metals markets? Well, the answer is simple. Even after a nearly 1,000 point decline in the DOW, your average Joe is still holding on to the hope that all is right with the world. Folks, if you believe that then you probably still believe Bill Clinton "never had sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky". Now, the markets have been kicked in the guts and there could still be one last stand by the bulls. But, I believe that it will last for only a couple of days, just long enough to convince enough people that things will be OK and that Moses will make a encore performance and deliver investors from financial persecution and guide them to the promised land.

Just in case Moses is a no-show, I suggest that, if you haven't already, you start taking small positions in the Precious metals markets. No mining shares. Buy futures, options or even the physical metal itself. As a matter of fact, buy some gold, to have and to hold, because it could come in handy when the markets really go cold. If you are still holding stocks there may be one last chance to dump them at higher prices but don't let the thought of a few extra bucks keep you from doing the right thing. Stick a fork in 'em because stocks are DONE! Cash is going to be a precious commodity. Pay down your debt in whatever way possible and hold on to your hat. Things are about to get really ugly. All the cosmic tumblers have fallen into place to provide the fuel for the Perfect Financial Storm.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

Update on recent FED action

Good morning,

I thought it would be a good idea to post additional comments regarding the FED and what they should be doing vs. what they are currently doing regarding the credit crunch that we're currently experiencing. The so-called experts continue to tell us that all is well and that there's no need for the FED to lower rates. Injecting liquidity into the banking system, as the FED has been doing until today, will be sufficient to keep the system afloat. Well, I happen to disagree and that's certainly my prerogative. The facts, as I see them, don't support the theory that this crisis can be contained by the recent actions by the FED. We have never, at least in my life, dealt with a situation like the one we currently have in housing, credit, and financial markets in general. There's no crystal ball that can guide us or give us a look into the future. I was speaking with a friend of mine the other night and I offered my favorite analogy for events such as the rapid acceleration in real estate prices from 2002-2006. The farther you stretch the rubber band the more violent the reaction when it snaps back. Sometimes the rubber band breaks when it has been stretched beyond its capabilities. That may have occurred and nobody has recognized it. Because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibilities. Well, the DOW is down 156 points at 11:16 AM this Tuesday and the market certainly seems to be telling us that all in NOT well in the world. It will be interesting to see what happens when we revisit 13,000 in the DOW. We'll stay short until the market tells us to do otherwise.

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

For once "The Donald" agrees with me!

Good afternoon,

Donald Trump just agreed with me! He just told the talking heads on CNBC that he thought we would see a recession in this country and soon. He also said the FED should lower interest rates by a full point NOW! I happen to agree with HIM! Let's see if any of this actually come to fruition.

ALERT - The FED is actively adding reserves to the banking system according to the newswires. They need to do much more but they'll always be way behind the curve because they're bureaucrats.

So, there you have the final word from two of the world's greatest financial minds (egos?).

The markets have been relatively stable although sharply lower as I write. DOW futures are down 190 as I write. Once we crack 13000, it could be a quick slide to the 10,000 level wiping out the entire year's gain. We'll see how it all plays out.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

TGIF!

Good morning,

First, I would like to send out a Happy Birthday to my friend Phil Sullivan. I'll be firing up a fine stogie in your honor later today! Have a great day!

It's 5:41 AM EDT and I'm wondering about what might happen in today's trading session. When I submitted yesterday's entry the DOW futures were only down about 180. We all know what happened next. The Dollar/Yen is trying to stabilize but I think it's just a temporary respite as the market just challenged 118.23 and failed miserably. The DOW futures are down 68 right now but that can change in the blink of an eye. If the equities markets show signs of another meltdown the Dollar should follow. It's going to be a long, hot summer as we continue to see the credit markets disintegrate before our eyes. All the "newfangled" products that took all of those mortgages that weren't worth the paper they were printed on have all turned ugly and those left holding the bag aren't too happy about it. These investment turds are really stinking the joint up as more bad news related to the sub-prime market comes to light. Caveat emptor! Buyer beware. It's a cruel world out there especially in the financial markets. There are plenty of con games still in play so please be careful.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

The Dollar revisited

Good morning,

The Dollar is in freefall today vs. the Yen as we continue to move towards financial armageddon. If you've followed my writings you know that I have been extremely skeptical about the stock market rally that has occurred over the last year. But you have to understand that the market will always hurt the greatest number of participants and that time, in my humble opinion, is imminent. If you have any doubt just look at the housing debacle that we're currently experiencing. I moved back to Florida in January of 2005 just in time to witness the hysteria that was taking place in the Real Estate markets, not only in South Florida but in most areas of the country. I worked alongside people that were heavily involved in the industry and they believed, with all their hearts, that they had found the "Holy Grail" and nothing could keep prices from going up, up and away! You had people getting mortgages that didn't have a nickel to rub against a dime and speculators that never even considered the possibility that real estate prices COULD actually go down. "Flipping" had a whole new meaning and you must have been a recluse if you weren't doing it too. Situations like this can have only one result. A meltdown has occurred due to easy credit and historically low interest rates. Don't even think about a bottom in this market any time soon. I believe the worst is yet to come and it WILL eventually spread to other areas of our economy which will put us into a deep and prolonged recession. When the Presidential election rolls around we may be hard pressed to find a candidate willing to take over the mess that they will have to inherit from one George W. Bush. This man has been "bush league" from day one. He's taken incompetence to a whole new level which we haven't seen since the days of Jimmy Carter. Please forgive me for going off on a tangent but we, as citizens, must put aside partisanship before we lose EVERYTHING that we have worked for in this country.

That's it for now. DOW futures are down 170 but don't turn your back on this market if you're short like me.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities

I'm back!

Hello all,

Well, I've been on an extended hiatus from writing commentary on the markets. There are many reasons for my absence as I've been busy moving my family into a new home, getting my son acclimated to Florida (again!) and doing a little undercover work in an industry that needs a serious kick in the ass.

I haven't been neglecting the markets. The volatility in the Stock Index futures is off the charts and, for those with a cast-iron stomach, there's a lot of money to be made there. Just don't turn your back on the market for more than a few seconds or you'll likely get a very unpleasant surprise. I've offered some market comments recently to my friend, Myra Saefong, at Marketwatch.com for her Commodities Corner column but that's been about it.

So, I'll be ramping this blog back up over the next few days so let me know what you'd like to read about and I'll try to accomodate you.

Regards,

Dale F. Doelling
President and Chief Market Technician
Trends In Commodities